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Target trial emulation of vaccine effectiveness in 5- to 17-years-olds with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection

Lei, Y; Chen, J; Wu, Q; et al., Nature Communications, April 2026

View Publication on PubMed

Short Summary

In this RECOVER study, researchers looked at how well COVID-19 vaccines protected children and adolescents who’d already had COVID-19 from getting it again. Researchers reviewed the electronic health records (EHRs) of nearly 600,000 children ages 5–11 and adolescents ages 12–17. These young people received health care at 37 children’s hospitals located across the US. Researchers compared young people who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine with those who had not. Researchers found that vaccine protection changed as new versions (variants) of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, appeared. Early in the Omicron variant period, vaccines lowered the chance of getting COVID-19 again by about 62% in children and 65% in adolescents. In the mid-Omicron variant period, the vaccines lowered the chance of getting COVID-19 again by 57% in children but did not work as well for adolescents. During the later Omicron variant period, the vaccines did not stop children or adolescents from getting COVID-19 again. These findings are important because they show that vaccines offered protection against getting COVID-19 again at first, but that protection became weaker as SARS-CoV-2 changed over time.   

This summary was prepared by the RECOVER Initiative.

Publication Details

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-71820-2

Abstract

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in children and adolescents with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection remains unclear, particularly for Omicron subvariants. We evaluate vaccine effectiveness against reinfection with Omicron BA.1/BA.2, BA.4/BA.5, XBB, and later subvariants among 5- to 17-year-olds using data from the RECOVER initiative, a national electronic health record database covering 37 U.S. children's hospitals and health institutions. We emulate target trials by age group and variant period, comparing previously infected participants between January 2022 and August 2023. During the BA.1/BA.2 period, vaccination reduces the risk of reinfection, with effectiveness rates of 62% in children and 65% in adolescents. During the BA.4/BA.5 period, protection effectiveness in children was 57%, whereas no statistically significant protection is observed in adolescents. During the XBB and later period, no significant protection is observed in either group. In summary, COVID-19 vaccination provides protection against reinfection during the early and mid-Omicron periods in previously infected pediatric populations, but effectiveness declines for later variants.

Authors

Yuqing Lei, Jiajie Chen, Qiong Wu, Ting Zhou, Bingyu Zhang, Michael J Becich, Yuriy Bisyuk, Saul Blecker, Elizabeth A Chrischilles, Dimitri A Christakis, Lindsay G Cowell, Mollie R Cummins, Soledad A Fernandez, Daniel Fort, Sandy L Gonzalez, Sharon J Herring, Benjamin D Horne, Carol Horowitz, Mei Liu, Susan Kim, Parsa Mirhaji, Abu Saleh Mohammad Mosa, Jennifer A Muszynski, Catharine I Paules, Alice I Sato, Hayden T Schwenk, Soumitra Sengupta, Srinivasan Suresh, Bradley W Taylor, David A Williams, Yongqun He, Jeffrey S Morris, Ravi Jhaveri, Christopher B Forrest, Yong Chen, RECOVER Consortium

Keywords

Humans; Vaccine Efficacy; Adolescent; COVID-19/prevention & control/immunology/virology/epidemiology; COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology/administration & dosage; SARS-CoV-2/immunology; Child, Preschool; Child; Female; Male; Vaccination; Reinfection/prevention & control

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Tags

Study Type
  • Electronic Health Record (EHR)
Participants
  • Pediatric
Findings
  • Vaccination
  • Viral Variants